Quick Notes

[billroper]

So I was talking to my brother -- who works in the oil and gas industry -- today about some family matters and the discussion veered from the price of oil to the upcoming Presidential election. My brother, shooting from the hip -- once again appropriate, since he's down in Texas -- said that he thought that if Kerry were elected oil might hit $100 / barrel, because Kerry would empty the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a futile effort to drive down prices, after which we would be over a barrel, so to speak. (I'd be surprised if oil got that high, but I'm surprised that it's this high, so what do I know?)

He also noted that they can't get a firm quote on pipe for a pipeline, because the suppliers won't give you a quote valid past now because steel prices are up by about 50% and no one wants to get stuck with expensive inventory in case steel prices retreat to a more normal level. If you want to buy it today, they'll give you a price and if you say yes, they'll buy the steel to make the pipe.

Meanwhile, on a completely non-political subject, I went down to Hot Dog Island for lunch today and found myself sitting one table away from Jerry Krause, the former general manager of the Chicago Bulls.

Comments

[singlemaltsilk.livejournal.com]

Bill, I've read Kerry's position papers on energy, and I haven't seen ANY reference at all to touching the SPR. Of course, your brother is certainly entitled to his opinions.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Although you have to admit, an opinion along the lines of: "The President has screwed the economy up so badly that oil has gotten higher than $50 a barrel, and he shows no sign of doing anything about it or even caring, but I'm not going to vote for the other guy because of some imagined fear." Seems to me you get rid of the guy who caused the problems in the first place (idiotic energy policy, terrible monetary policy, foreign wars).

But similar to above, I'm surprised that the President screwed it up this bad. I mean, I knew it would be bad...but wow. So what do I know?

B

[billroper]

I found this article when I went looking on Google.

Other articles that I saw suggest that he may have simply suggested not filling the reserve at this time, rather than taking oil out of it.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Since Bush is now tapping the reserves (presumably in an attempt to drive prices down before the election), is your brother now going to vote for Kerry?

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6319418

B

[billroper]

Actually, I think my brother likes high oil prices from where he's sitting. :)

[shsilver.livejournal.com]

I've got to say that your brother's comment strikes me as being in the same category as the comments made by the women Gretchen works with.

[tigertoy.livejournal.com]

I vaguely recall Kerry saying that Bush should release oil from the SPR way back when, probably from the same incident the article you linked to refers to. I think it was a campaign tactic (he knew Bush wouldn't do it but he wanted to make Bush look bad by refusing to do it). I wouldn't take it as a statement that it is actually the policy he plans to follow.

I don't think it's a good idea to release oil from the SPR as long as the Arabs are still selling us oil at the market price. I was pretty young at the time, but I remember what happened when they stopped selling us oil, which I think most people have forgotten. But I also don't think it's a good idea to be pushing up the price of oil by adding to the SPR when oil prices are at record highs.

Oil will not hit $100 a barrel in the next term unless the Arabs have another embargo, and Bush with his "do what I say or go screw" approach to diplomacy is the candidate more likely to piss off the Arabs to that extent. In the longer term, it will go that high regardless of the Arabs, as China's demand comes on line, unless we get our asses in gear very quickly and start using it more efficiently; and Kerry is certainly the candidate more likely to get real (as opposed to fake talking point) energy conservation measures through.

So if you don't want to see $100/barrel oil, Kerry is clearly better than Bush. Remember, Bush is an oil man; his buddies will get rich beyond even their dreams of avarice if oil goes that high -- and getting his buddies rich is his whole agenda.

I can relate

[qnvhrtz.livejournal.com]

to the comments about steel prices. As I work in a steel shelving manufacturing plant...... In addition to a 10% price increase on all product lines in June we are currently assessing a $.24/pound surcharge on all orders until further notice. Our customers are rebelling against this greatly, but I work for a company that has chosen to put this pricing out there for what it is instead of hiding this cost in other ways. (Most of our customers don't actually follow the steel market, and would like us to believe that "other companies aren't charging extra".)

The good news for Borroughs customers is that our prices won't *stay* inflated when costs come down. We'd like to reduce or eliminate the surcharge as soon as possible. (Some of our competition are simply making price increases which I'd imagine will be permanent.)