Quick Notes

[billroper]

So I was talking to my brother -- who works in the oil and gas industry -- today about some family matters and the discussion veered from the price of oil to the upcoming Presidential election. My brother, shooting from the hip -- once again appropriate, since he's down in Texas -- said that he thought that if Kerry were elected oil might hit $100 / barrel, because Kerry would empty the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a futile effort to drive down prices, after which we would be over a barrel, so to speak. (I'd be surprised if oil got that high, but I'm surprised that it's this high, so what do I know?)

He also noted that they can't get a firm quote on pipe for a pipeline, because the suppliers won't give you a quote valid past now because steel prices are up by about 50% and no one wants to get stuck with expensive inventory in case steel prices retreat to a more normal level. If you want to buy it today, they'll give you a price and if you say yes, they'll buy the steel to make the pipe.

Meanwhile, on a completely non-political subject, I went down to Hot Dog Island for lunch today and found myself sitting one table away from Jerry Krause, the former general manager of the Chicago Bulls.

Comments

[tigertoy.livejournal.com]

I vaguely recall Kerry saying that Bush should release oil from the SPR way back when, probably from the same incident the article you linked to refers to. I think it was a campaign tactic (he knew Bush wouldn't do it but he wanted to make Bush look bad by refusing to do it). I wouldn't take it as a statement that it is actually the policy he plans to follow.

I don't think it's a good idea to release oil from the SPR as long as the Arabs are still selling us oil at the market price. I was pretty young at the time, but I remember what happened when they stopped selling us oil, which I think most people have forgotten. But I also don't think it's a good idea to be pushing up the price of oil by adding to the SPR when oil prices are at record highs.

Oil will not hit $100 a barrel in the next term unless the Arabs have another embargo, and Bush with his "do what I say or go screw" approach to diplomacy is the candidate more likely to piss off the Arabs to that extent. In the longer term, it will go that high regardless of the Arabs, as China's demand comes on line, unless we get our asses in gear very quickly and start using it more efficiently; and Kerry is certainly the candidate more likely to get real (as opposed to fake talking point) energy conservation measures through.

So if you don't want to see $100/barrel oil, Kerry is clearly better than Bush. Remember, Bush is an oil man; his buddies will get rich beyond even their dreams of avarice if oil goes that high -- and getting his buddies rich is his whole agenda.