Following the Science Off a Cliff
Aug. 26th, 2025 07:32 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
billroperI guess we have solved the problem of what to do about taking care of the dogs over OVFF, because OVFF has posted their health policy for 2025 and it appears that Gretchen will not be coming.
Meanwhile, in a glorious triumph for *someone* of *some* kind, I now have to decide whether I am going to be vaccinated against RSV or whether I am going to be tested for COVID three times during the course of the convention. Logic here is, of course, completely absent. But last year, my oldest child had to decide between getting a test that was unavailable or getting vaccinated in order to attend the convention, so I suppose this year's policy is a small improvement in that it doesn't mandate an unavailable test.
I checked before posting this, because I couldn't sleep before posting this -- and since I was up until 2:30 AM debugging, I would *really* like to go back to sleep! -- and the latest study from the CDC says that over a five month period, you were 54% less likely to contract COVID if you received the booster in September, 2024. Thus, there *is* a study indicating that it does *something*. (Now, I *agree* that it does *something*. If you have never had or been exposed to COVID before, it is clear to me that getting vaccinated improves your chances of not dying of the disease. At this point, of course, everyone except The Boy in the Bubble has either had COVID at least once or been vaccinated against it at least once or both.)
Having spent still *more* time looking for studies instead of sleeping, I fail to find one that quantifies how much less likely a *vaccinated* person who contracts COVID is to transmit the disease that someone who is *not* recently boosted, although I find one that indicates that the vaccinated person is likely to remain contagious for about 6 days, while the unvaccinated person remains contagious for about 7.5 days. My calculator tells me that's about 80% of the time, because I am not going to try to do math in my head on this little sleep. And when I multiply that by the 54% above, I get a number that's something like 43%.
Let's take that number in the absence of a better one. A vaccinated person who walks through the door would have a 43% chance of giving someone COVID as opposed to an unvaccinated person. The vaccinated person is not required to test at all. The unvaccinated person is required to test on each of the three days of the convention, just in case they develop the disease at the con. The vaccinated person could develop the disease at the con too (54% less likely!), but they don't need to test at all.
Given those sorts of numbers, it feels like the testing policy is simply punitive.
And given that -- as written and posted -- a failure to be vaccinated against RSV means that you need to be tested for COVID, it's not very scientific either.
I'm going to go back to bed now.
And I am going to *hate* going to OVFF without Gretchen.
But the dogs, I suppose, will be happier.
Meanwhile, in a glorious triumph for *someone* of *some* kind, I now have to decide whether I am going to be vaccinated against RSV or whether I am going to be tested for COVID three times during the course of the convention. Logic here is, of course, completely absent. But last year, my oldest child had to decide between getting a test that was unavailable or getting vaccinated in order to attend the convention, so I suppose this year's policy is a small improvement in that it doesn't mandate an unavailable test.
I checked before posting this, because I couldn't sleep before posting this -- and since I was up until 2:30 AM debugging, I would *really* like to go back to sleep! -- and the latest study from the CDC says that over a five month period, you were 54% less likely to contract COVID if you received the booster in September, 2024. Thus, there *is* a study indicating that it does *something*. (Now, I *agree* that it does *something*. If you have never had or been exposed to COVID before, it is clear to me that getting vaccinated improves your chances of not dying of the disease. At this point, of course, everyone except The Boy in the Bubble has either had COVID at least once or been vaccinated against it at least once or both.)
Having spent still *more* time looking for studies instead of sleeping, I fail to find one that quantifies how much less likely a *vaccinated* person who contracts COVID is to transmit the disease that someone who is *not* recently boosted, although I find one that indicates that the vaccinated person is likely to remain contagious for about 6 days, while the unvaccinated person remains contagious for about 7.5 days. My calculator tells me that's about 80% of the time, because I am not going to try to do math in my head on this little sleep. And when I multiply that by the 54% above, I get a number that's something like 43%.
Let's take that number in the absence of a better one. A vaccinated person who walks through the door would have a 43% chance of giving someone COVID as opposed to an unvaccinated person. The vaccinated person is not required to test at all. The unvaccinated person is required to test on each of the three days of the convention, just in case they develop the disease at the con. The vaccinated person could develop the disease at the con too (54% less likely!), but they don't need to test at all.
Given those sorts of numbers, it feels like the testing policy is simply punitive.
And given that -- as written and posted -- a failure to be vaccinated against RSV means that you need to be tested for COVID, it's not very scientific either.
I'm going to go back to bed now.
And I am going to *hate* going to OVFF without Gretchen.
But the dogs, I suppose, will be happier.