Terrorists Win

[billroper]

And now, we get to mark 3/11 down in the calendar, right next to 9/11, except that we get to log 3/11 as a major victory for the terrorists.

We don't yet know for sure exactly who was responsible for the Madrid bombings. We do know that someone claimed credit on behalf of Al Qaeda and we do know that the Popular Party, which was in power and expected to remain in power prior to 3/11, was voted out in favor of the Socialist Party, which had announced its intention to do exactly what Al Qaeda wanted them to do.

You get the behavior that you incent for. The Spanish electorate has now provided a powerful incentive for terrorist groups to carry out bombings in advance of elections as a tool to influence the results of the elections. One of my co-workers -- who was opposed to the Iraq war -- noted that the Spanish electorate had just done the world no favor with this vote.

And I have to agree. Time for everyone to remember to keep their heads down, because the tactic has now worked once and will likely be tried again.

Comments

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Interesting interpretation. I believe that the results of the election was exactly the opposite of what the terrorists wanted. Their strategy seems to provoke an escalation, in order to incent further escalation, and so on. The U.S. has played right into al Qaeda plans by causing even more terror in the American people, attacking Iraq and causing more hatred among Arabs, and generally making the situation worse rather than better. The Sapnish responded by electing a government that will de-escalate, which frustrates the terrorists' plans.

I am pleased to see the Spanish people doing the smart thing, instead of the emotional thing. And I think it will make Spain much more secure over the long run.

B

[tigertoy.livejournal.com]

Gotta agree with Bill on the general premise, that you must not do what the terrorists want you to do, or they will keep doing it.

And that is called paying the Dane-Geld
But we've proved it again and again
That if ever you've paid him the Dane-Geld
You'll never be rid of the Dane!

It's not always clear just what the terrorists are trying to manipulate us into doing -- but the first, and the hardest to avoid, is to make a huge production over how horrific the attack was and how terrified we all have to be. If the coverage of the Madrid bombings had been a quarter page on page 3 and no pictures, do you think they'd bother doing it again?

[sibylle]

hmm ... I am not quite sure what I think yet, partly I agree though. I think some of the shift to the left that happened in Spain can also be attributed to the rather inept policy they ran afterwards, trying to blame everything on ETA.

I am kinda awed by the way the Spanish people reacted, though. Every fourth one on the street - what better gesture is there to make?

But, yes, in the long run it might be counterproductive, withdrawing the forces now. I don't want to get into an argument of whether they should have been sent or not in the first place - kinda would be talking about spoilt milk anyway. *shrug*

end of ramblings

[sdorn.livejournal.com]

Did you ever hear about the old stock-market scam whereby someone calls you on the phone and predicts which way a stock is going next week, all for free. The next week, the same person calls you up on the phone and says, "Hey, we got one week correct, and here's how the stock is going the next week." After four weeks of correct advice, the person says, "Hey, we've gotten four weeks correct. That ends our series of free advice. The next four weeks of stock advice will cost $1000, but imagine how much money you'll make."

The trick is that the boiler-room operation called (some multiple of) 16 people the first week, splitting the prediction, (some multiple of) 8 people the second week (just those with the correct prediction), again splitting the prediction, etc., so that one-sixteenth of the potential marks were always going to hear four weeks of correct predictions before the pitch.

The point here about a terror attack a few days before a close election is that one could claim that the results are a victory for terrorists, no matter what the results are. And I'm about 90% sure that's how the attack organizers intended it.

Slight disagreement...

[filkertom.livejournal.com]

I agree that the terrorists may take it as a victory... and, if the outcome was what they wanted, perhaps it is, in a way. But the news reports over the past two days suggest that the incumbents were voted out of office because they basically tried to shove down everyone's throats that the bombers were associated with ETA, when mounting evidence showed something else.

In other words, the Spanish people weren't afraid of the terrorists so much as ticked off that their government tried to spin the truth.

Nope, no lesson to be learned here. Move along, nothing to see....