I Have to Ask

[billroper]

Would any of my German friends on LJ care to comment on yesterday's election? It will probably be much more informative than what I'm getting from the U.S. press...

Comments

[shannachie.livejournal.com]

coming up tonight. Check later when I'm home from work!

[billroper]

Thanks! Sounds pretty much like what I saw at Medienkritik. I suppose that this is going to be really interesting for observers of political chaos, maybe not so much for those folks actually living there.

[jrittenhouse.livejournal.com]

How German do you have to be??

My take on it is that the Bundestag is screwed. Nobody can make a majority government without some seriously wild coalition that is gonna fall apart, and Angela Merkel is toast, personally. The CS coalition blew it by putting her in charge.

There's 603 seats in the Bundestag.
About 250 each goes to the Socialists and the Conservatives - leaving about 100 'other' seats. The 'other' seats are for the Green Party alliance (55), the Free Democrats (47) and the Commies (2) - oops, Party of the Left, or what's left of the old DDR's Commies.

The Free Democrats are an odd bird. They claim they're the thinking man's liberal libertarian party. The Greens are - well, Greens.

What it comes down to is that any alliance with one of two little parties with one of the big parties produces a weak coalition with a weak majority. All of the four main parties are rife with factions, and one could blow and a group of 10-20 walk out of the big ones at any time, so a 51% control of the government leaves you at the mercy of the smaller parties and the internal factions of same, just waiting for hell to break loose.

A just as dumb idea is the Grand Coalition idea, where all four or maybe three of the four unite for a larger majority. But that's just as unstable, given the situation.

Added to that is that the people are fed up with a crappy economic situation, high unemployment and are scared to death that they'll lose their benefits. The unemployment is left over from Wessi/Ossi problems from Reunification; the West spent bazillions on the East, and the East's economy and employment levels have continously sucked rat poop since the countries were re-merged. The benefits make the drain on the state worse, because the locals LIKE all of their state benefits and vacations and whatnot. It runs the hell up on taxes and labor costs, however.

Problem is that both Schroeder and Merkel want to go after this with an axe, the difference is the size of the axe. Merkel's axe is Thatcher-sized.

The election was called on the basis of the SPD losing its shirt on a state level due to all of these problems. The reason it didn't get squashed bad in the election is because Merkel sucks as a candidate, couldn't reach well with the electorate or think on her feet to explain things, and so on. And that's why I think the insiders in the Conservatives will toss her butt (she's not necessarily all that popular in the alte partei operatives) and find another leader, but fast.

My guess is that new elections will show up within a year. This will be VERY odd in German politics. The Bundestag usually is pretty steady on a four-year election cycles, but they CAN do it more often. But this Bundestag will be so on-the-edge busted that nothing is going to get done.

[sibylle]

Actually, I think the problem as I see it is that 'the commies' now got 54 seats, not 2 and thusthe parties that can theoretically form coalitions now actually comprise only about 91% of the votes in the Bundestag (the Commies having garnered 8.5% and everyone else asserting time-and-again (lets see if they stick to it) that they'd in no way rule with the Commies)) so basically they need to form a coalition that'll get more than 50% of the votes in the Bundestag (to be able to pass laws, elect the chancelor etc) and can only from that out of about 91%, instead of 100%.

So right now, no conceivable coalition really has a majority at all and no-one can rule - the only coalitions possible being ones one or the other party that'd have to be involved spoke out against vehemently during electioneering. So no one can rule, really.

[jrittenhouse.livejournal.com]

Greens = commies? I wouldn't go that far.

[billroper]

And you wouldn't have to.

The "Linke" party -- former Communists -- won 54 seats. Check here and you'll see.

[jrittenhouse.livejournal.com]

Cripes, you're right. The figures I had were totally - aw, cr@p.

[sibylle]

No, the far reds "die Linke" - they're the old PDS, re-formed with a new name, and now got 8.5% of the German vote (led by Gysi and Lafontaine).

Not the greens (they only got 8.2%).

[sibylle]

I did in my journal - link. :-)

[billroper]

Thanks!