billroper: (Default)
[personal profile] billroper
No, it's not very likely that this asteroid will hit the Earth on Friday, April 13th, 2029. In fact, the chances are currently estimated at 300-1 against.

But talk about your bad luck if it did hit.

Date: 2004-12-24 12:30 pm (UTC)
madfilkentist: My cat Florestan (gray shorthair) (Default)
From: [personal profile] madfilkentist
From the teaser page of Lucifer's Hammer:

The chances that Lucifer's Hammer would hit earth head-on were one in a million,
Then one in a thousand,
Then one in a hundred,
And then...

Oh, well, I'll be 78 then. What a way to go!

Date: 2004-12-26 01:28 am (UTC)
madfilkentist: My cat Florestan (gray shorthair) (Default)
From: [personal profile] madfilkentist
I shouldn't have invoked Niven and Pournelle. Updated odds of a hit are about 1 in 60.

Date: 2004-12-24 04:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pbristow.livejournal.com
I'll be retiring around then anyway. =:o}

But 2029 is a pretty good fit for my choice of "least implausibly tortuous Biblically-based numerological theory for the approximate timing of armageddon" (which does of course feature as one of its highlights "something like a huge mountain" being hurled into the sea), if anyone's interested...? (Dead simple really: Count 2000 years from Christ's death/resurrection. )

Date: 2004-12-24 05:18 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] minnehaha.livejournal.com
Fascinating.

Compared to a bunch of terrorism risks, this is much more likely. But I already knew that security budgets are mostly about perception and very little about reality.

B

Date: 2004-12-27 11:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] minnehaha.livejournal.com
The asteroid now has a 2.7% chance of hitting the Earth:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

B

Date: 2004-12-28 04:31 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] minnehaha.livejournal.com
Fascinating. The probability changed between when I posted the link and when you read it.

B

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